Mahomes leads the league in Total QBR (78.6) and first-down rate (42.3%). The only quarterback averaging more yards per dropback and with a better passer rating is Tua Tagovailoa, who has missed 3½ games with injuries. The Chiefs place more on Mahomes’ shoulders than any other team does with its quarterback or passing attack, and nobody else is within a day’s work of Mahomes’ 5,048 passing yards.
Naturally, he would also be my pick for MVP, but I don’t think it’s a done deal. Mahomes has been good over the past few weeks, but I would argue he hasn’t had that sort of seal-the-envelope performance we see from MVP winners in December. He was excellent in a win over the Texans, going 36 of 41 for 336 yards, but beating Houston isn’t going to wow voters.
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) is out of the discussion after missing the past two games with an injury, but the quarterbacks suiting up Monday night could still figure in. Josh Allen (Bills) has been inconsistent, but we know what he is capable of producing in a big moment, and his Buffalo team is currently the top seed in the AFC. Burrow got off to a slow start this season, but he has been getting better as the season goes along.
Mahomes should be the favorite, but Allen or Burrow could sway voters with a transcendent performance in prime time against top competition.