Even with the loss of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs’ star will be the second QB off the board in most drafts. After dominating the fantasy world in his first season as a starter for Kansas City in 2018 (5,369 combined yards with 52 touchdowns), Patrick Mahomes has ranked seventh (334.55 – two missed games), fourth (429.80 – 15 starts) and fourth (427.25) in fantasy scoring in four-point scoring formats. He has a 50-13 career record in the regular season, with four postseason trips (8-3 – including 1-1 in the Super Bowl).
In 2021, Mahomes set career-highs in completions (436), pass attempts (658), rushing attempts (66) and rushing yards (381). His season started with success over four games (1,310 combined yards with 15 touchdowns). Other than Week 10 (406/5), he lost his luster from Weeks 5-14 (269 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns over nine starts. However, Mahomes did regain his stride throwing the ball in the playoffs (404/5, 378/3, 275/3).
Fantasy outlook: Mahomes is the second quarterback off the board in the National Fantasy Football Championship in early June. His floor has been a top-five quarterback over the past three seasons when adding back his couple of missed games. The loss of Tyreek Hill changes how opponents will defend Kansas City’s passing attack, possibly making it easier to cover Travis Kelce. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster once had the feel of a high-volume catch receiver with a WR1 ceiling. Mahomes must revitalize his career, which would help stabilize the Chiefs’ floor in passing yards and touchdowns. I expect a minimum of 4,800 combined yards with 35 touchdowns while understanding his potential ceiling.